Libya: It Was All Supposed To Be Very Different
Updated: 8:47pm UK, Monday 28 July 2014
By Ashish Joshi, Sky News Correspondent
Libya is inching forward into the abyss. It has taken three years to bring the country to the brink of a civil war. And now it is almost there.
Armed violent militias are carving up the country along religious, ideological, political and tribal lines.
But it was all supposed to very different. Back in 2011, British Prime Minister David Cameron arrived in the country to a hero's welcome.
He was mobbed by cheering Libyans grateful for being freed from Gaddafi's tyranny after more than 40 years.
Libya was hailed as a model of Western interventionism. Backed by Nato, the rebels marched on the capital Tripoli. Colonel Gaddafi was found and killed.
A dictator removed and democracy installed. Sounds simple but it showed naivety and a total misunderstanding of the situation in the north African state.
North Africa analyst Olivier Guitta said the only people who were organised and ready to exploit the power vacuum created by Gaddafi's removal were the Islamists.
He said: "The West thought it was going to be a cakewalk. They thought people would all of a sudden become democratic and be ruled like Switzerland.
"But Gaddafi made sure that there was nobody powerful enough to replace because the system he set up needed a strongman to rule. Unfortunately the only ones who were organised were the Islamists."
Some analysts think there may be up to 1,700 rival militias. These are divided along ideological, political, religious and tribal lines. The one thing that unified them was their hatred of Gaddafi.
Now the only thing they have in common is their lust for power and money. There have been five governments since 2011 and none including the current administration has managed overall control of the country.
Western embassies and diplomats are being targeted. One of the most brutal assaults was on the US consulate in Benghazi in 2012.
US ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens was among four Americans killed.
Now an escalation in fighting, the worst in three years, has forced the US to evacuate its embassy in Tripoli. American diplomats travelled by road to Tunisia escorted by jets.
The UN Support Mission in Libya and the Red Cross have also withdrawn staff.
On Sunday, a convoy of British diplomats being taken to Tunisia was ambushed by gunmen between Tripoli and Zawiya. They all survived.
And following the attack on those diplomats, the Foreign Office has urged British nationals to leave Libya.
The exodus of Western interests does not bode well. It means there's less pressure or need for a second international intervention.
But it is in the West's interests to get Libya right. The violence here threatens to destabilise further an already volatile region.
Neighbours Egypt, Mali, Chad and Niger are nervously watching the situation in Libya deteriorate. It would not take much for it to spill over their borders. That threat might be enough to force international action.
"My best guess is there is going to be another intervention", said Olivier Guitta. "Special forces from the West and Algeria are conducting raids in the south to root out al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb."
Libya is described as the world's largest arms bazaar. The easy access to this arsenal by international terrorists is another reason why there could be further western action.
But many would argue that the West has a responsibility for helping Libya because it must share the blame for creating the mess in the first place.
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