On Monday, the Russian rouble suffered its worst one-day crash since the 1998 default crisis.
The currency has lost more than 40% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year, rivalling the Ukrainian hryvnia for the title of world's worst performing currency 2014.
International sanctions have played a part, but the vast majority is down to the falling global oil price.
To give you an idea of how that breaks down - Russia's finance minister estimates Western sanctions have cost the country around $40bn, whereas the price of oil has accounted for around $100bn so far.
Russia's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas - they make up approximately two-thirds of the country's exports and around half its budget revenues.
Monday's dramatic slump followed OPEC's decision not to cut production to boost prices - cheaper oil looks set to last for a longer period, forcing markets to reassess Russian assets.
Added to that, Russia's Central Bank abandoned its policy of routine intervention last month - switching to a free-floating rouble, which would be allowed to find its own value, undertaking only to intervene if domestic financial stability was threatened.
The bank is widely believed to have done exactly that on Monday, accounting for a small rally in the rouble's exchange.
So what does this mean for Vladimir Putin - the strongman President who has built his rule on the promise of restoring Russia's place in the world, delivering stability after the chaos and financial crises of the 1990s.
His first two terms coincided with a massive hike in the price of oil - giving the impression of a booming economy, even if the fundamental structures underneath hadn't really changed.
For many people here that meant an increase in the standard of living, and a new middle class that became accustomed to owning the latest iPhone and enjoying summer holidays and winter skiing abroad.
So you might expect the rouble crash to be leading every news bulletin, perhaps people taking to the streets. Not so.
Mr Putin's popularity has dipped very slightly, but his approval rating remains above 80%.
There is an argument that Western sanctions actually help the Kremlin politically.
The economy was already flat-lining and oil-dependent, so the oil price drop would in any case have had a significant effect.
Without international sanctions, Mr Putin would have been forced to explain why, given the vast oil wealth that has flowed through Russia during his time in office, the country's economy is in such an underwhelming state.
Now the Kremlin has the familiar spectre of the "hostile West" to blame for any hardship the population might feel.
The foreign minister recently accused the West of seeking "regime change" in Russia through sanctions.
Rather than challenging the government's handling of the economy, Russian state-controlled media are instead focusing on stirring the nation's patriotic sentiment and portraying the President as the one man standing up to the West.
Increasing control of the media, aided by the fact that key opposition figures are under house arrest, means that for all that Russia's economy may be faltering, thus far the same cannot be said of its President.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
Putin Uses Sanctions To Mask Economy's Failings
Dengan url
http://plumpangraya.blogspot.com/2014/12/putin-uses-sanctions-to-mask-economys.html
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
Putin Uses Sanctions To Mask Economy's Failings
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
Putin Uses Sanctions To Mask Economy's Failings
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar